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2022年的回报 $TWTR: -4% $AAPL: -15% $TSLA: -22 $MSFT: -29% $GOOG: -31% $AMZN: -32 $GME: -33% $CRM: -42% $TEAM: -43% $SNOW: -49% $ADBE: -50 $MRNA: -51% $AMD: -53% $PYPL: -54% $ETSY: -56% $NVDA: -57% $META: -58% $ZM: -60% $SPOT: -62 $NFLX: -62% $SQ: -65 $SNAP: -78% $SHOP: -79%

数据来源: 该页面支持的版本: 该页面支持的语言: 订阅地址: 社交媒体: 最后更新于: 2022-12-03T21:00:18.831+08:00   查看统计
背后的人❤️: Owen (Twitter)

#Charlie Bilello

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% Increase over the last 3 years... US Money Supply (M2): +40% US Home Prices (National Index): +41% Coincidence? Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average today for the first time since April. $SPX Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Performance of 3 strategies in 2022... a) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes above 30, sell when $VIX closes below 20: +29.7% b) Buy & Hold S&P 500: -13.1% c) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes below 20, sell when $VIX closes above 30: -33.0% The $VIX closed yesterday at 20.58. (twitter.com)
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Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate... -Dec 2022: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 50 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Nov 2023, continue in 2024... (twitter.com)
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With 97% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q3 GAAP earnings are down 10% year-over-year, the 2nd quarter in row of negative YoY growth. Based on guidance/estimates, we're likely to see negative YoY earnings growth again in Q4. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The median American household would need to spend 46.3% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home in the US, the highest % on record with data going back to 2006. (twitter.com)
Big tech returns in 2008 recession... $MSFT: -44% $AAPL: -57% $GOOGL: -56% $AMZN: -45% Big tech returns in 2020 recession... $MSFT: +43% $AAPL: +82% $GOOGL: +31% $AMZN: +76% Big tech returns in 2022 recession... $MSFT: -28% $AAPL: -20% $GOOGL: -34% $AMZN: -45% (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 1.5% today, its 57th decline of 1% or more this year. That's the most downside volatility we've seen since 2008. $SPX (twitter.com)
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A huge positive trend on the inflation front that hopefully continues: fertilizer prices peaked in late March and are down 40% since, now at the lowest levels since September 2021. Great news given their high correlation to food prices. (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Natural Gas: +43% Heating Oil: +33% Corn: +15% Soybeans: +13% US CPI: +7.7% Brent Crude +3% Gasoline: +1% Gold: -2% WTI Crude: -3% Sugar: -3% Wheat: -6% Silver: -9% Zinc: -12% Copper: -19% Cotton: -31% Coffee: -33% Lumber: -47% (twitter.com)
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The 3-Month Treasury bill yield is now 0.73% higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond. In the last 60 years, only periods with a more inverted yield curve... -2000-01 (recession in 2001) -1979-82 (recessions in 1980, 1981-82) -1973-74 (recession in 1973-75) Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Crypto Correction... Binance $BNB: -55% Tron $TRX: -71% Polygon $MATIC: -71% Ethereum $ETH: -75% Bitcoin $BTC: -76% XRP $XRP: -80% Litecoin $LTC: -82% Dogecoin $DOGE: -88% Uniswap $UNI: -88% Cardano $ADA: -90% Polkadot $DOT: -90% Solana $SOL: -95% FTX $FTT: -98% Terra $LUNA: -99% (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates moved down to their lowest levels since December 2020 this week, 75% below peak 2021 prices. (twitter.com)
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Performance of 3 strategies in 2022... a) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes above 30, sell when $VIX closes below 20: +27.9% b) Buy & Hold S&P 500: -14.3% c) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes below 20, sell when $VIX closes above 30: -33.0% $VIX closed today at 20.35, lowest since August. (twitter.com)
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The price of Crude Oil is now down 1% over the last year. Energy stocks? Up 68%.🤔 Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.72% & median new home price in the US was $347k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.58% & median new home price is $493k. Result: $29k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 123% increase in monthly payment (from $1,128 to $2,513). (twitter.com)
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Performance of 3 strategies this year... a) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes above 30, sell when $VIX closes below 20: +27.2% b) Buy & Hold S&P 500: -14.8% c) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes below 20, sell when $VIX closes above 30: -33.0% (twitter.com)
Beyond Meat, Net Income... 2022 YTD: -$299 million 2021: -$182 mil. 2020: -$53 mil. 2019: -$12 mil. 2018: -$30 mil. 2017: -$30 mil. 2016: -$25 mil. $BYND stock is now down 95% from its peak in 2019. IPO Price: $25/share All-Time High Price: $239/share Price Today: $12/share (twitter.com)
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The US Money Supply decreased 1.5% over the last 7 months, the largest decline over a 7-month period on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959). (twitter.com)
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Since 1959, the US Money Supply (M2) has gone up each and every year, with the 0.3% increase in 1994 the smallest and the 25% increase in 2020 the largest. 2022 is on pace to be the first calendar year in which the Money Supply has fallen in the last 60+ years, down 0.3% YTD. (twitter.com)
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Tesla is down 59.1% from its peak last November, its 2nd largest drawdown to date. Largest was the 60.6% decline in Feb-Mar 2020. $TSLA (twitter.com)
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The full US yield curve inverted this week w/ the 1-month Treasury bill yield rising above the 30-Yr Treasury bond yield. Last 2 times that happened? 1) Aug-Sep 2019 (recession started in Mar 2020) 2) Aug 2006 - Aug 2007 (recession started in Jan 2008). Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Heating Oil: +43% Natural Gas: +29% Corn: +17% Soybeans: +13% Brent Crude +8% US CPI: +7.7% Gasoline: +5% WTI Crude: +2% Sugar: -1% Wheat: -1% Zinc: -4% Gold: -6% Copper: -16% Silver: -16% Cotton: -26% Coffee: -34% Lumber: -44% (twitter.com)
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Current market expectations for path of the Fed Funds Rate... -Dec 2022: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 50 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -May 2023: 25 bps hike to 5.00%-5.25% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Nov 2023, continue in 2024... (twitter.com)
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Bitcoin's 77% drawdown over the last year is its largest since 2017-18 and at 364 days is now the 2nd longest, trailing only the 2013-15 decline of 410 days. $BTC (twitter.com)
Total Crypto market value... 2013: $10.6 billion 2014: $5.5 billion 2015: $7.0 billion 2016: $17.5 billion 2017: $590 billion 2018: $128 billion 2019: $190 billion 2020: $768 billion 2021: $2.26 trillion 2022 YTD: $833 billion (twitter.com)
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A big positive on the inflation front that hopefully continues: fertilizer prices peaked in late March and are down 39% since, now at the lowest prices since September 2021. This is great news given their high correlation to food prices. (twitter.com)
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The Fed's balance sheet is at a 52-week low for the first time since Dec 2019, down $340 billion from its peak in April and $133 billion over the last 5 weeks. This is the largest 5-week decline since July 2020. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Used car prices are now down 14% over the past year, the largest YoY decline on record with data going back to 2009. This was a leading indicator of higher inflation rates in 2020 and the recent downturn is likely a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come. (twitter.com)
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Disney's drawdown hit 57% last week, which is larger than its drawdown from 2007-09 (56%). $DIS Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
1-Month Treasury Yield: 3.93% 30-Year Treasury Yield: 3.89% The full US yield curve is now inverted. Last 2 times that happened? 1) Aug-Sep 2019 (recession started in Mar 2020) 2) Aug 2006 - Aug 2007 (recession started in Jan 2008). (twitter.com)
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The 30-year US mortgage rate moved from 7.08% to 6.61% over the last week, the largest one-week decline (-47 bps) in rates since November 1981. (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 62nd consecutive week to its lowest level since 1984. The 34% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The top 10 most-regretted college majors — and the degrees graduates wish they had pursued instead (www.cnbc.com)
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Household Debt and Credit Report - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (www.newyorkfed.org)
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The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index has been below 60 for 7 consecutive months, the longest run of extreme negative sentiment that we've seen with data going back to 1952. The prior record was 4 straight months during the 1980 recession. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Tesla's annual stock returns vs. revenue growth. Find the outlier. $TSLA (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit a 22-month low this week, down 71% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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The spread between 10-year and 1-year Treasury yields moved down to -0.77% last week, the most inverted curve since October 1981. The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion in this yield curve relationship. (twitter.com)
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The decline in used car prices has accelerated over the last 2 months... (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has moved down for 61 consecutive weeks to its lowest level since 1984. The 33% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin. (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Heating Oil: +45% Soybeans: +19% Corn: +16% Brent Crude +16% Natural Gas: +14% Gasoline: +10% WTI Crude: +9% US CPI: +7.7% Wheat: +1% Sugar: -2% Gold: -5% Zinc: -8% Copper: -11% Silver: -14% Coffee: -19% Cotton: -24% Lumber: -32% (twitter.com)
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US... 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 3.7% --- Today's Rate: 7.1% (highest since 2002) (twitter.com)
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Performance of 3 strategies this year... a) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes above 30, sell when $VIX closes below 20: +26.7% b) Buy & Hold S&P 500: -15.1% c) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes below 20, sell when $VIX closes above 30: -33.0% (twitter.com)
2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.80% & average new home price in the US was $395k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 7.08% & average new home price is $518k. Result: $25k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) & 114% increase in monthly payment (from $1,298 to $2,779). (twitter.com)
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The 15-year mortgage rate in the US has moved up to 6.38%, its highest level since 2007. This is more than triple last year's all-time low rate of 2.10%. (twitter.com)
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The average interest rate on US credit card balances moved up to 16.27% in the 3rd quarter. With data going back 1994 that's the highest rate we've ever seen. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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With 91% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q3 GAAP earnings are down 8% year-over-year, the 2nd quarter in row of negative YoY growth. $SPX (twitter.com)
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US workers who switched jobs received pay increases of 7.3% over the last year vs. 5.3% for those who stayed at their jobs. With data going back to 1997, this is the widest gap we've ever seen. (twitter.com)
Price to Sales Ratio... Rivian $RIVN: 43 Tesla $TSLA: 8.7 Ferrari $RACE: 7.1 Nio $NIO: 2.7 BYD $BYDDF: 1.4 Volvo $VOLVF: 0.8 Toyota $TM: 0.7 GM $GM: 0.4 BMW $BMWYY: 0.4 Mercedes-Benz $MBGAF: 0.4 Ford $F: 0.4 Volkswagen $VWAGY: 0.3 Honda $HMC: 0.3 Stellantis $STLA: 0.2 (twitter.com)
3-Month Treasury Yield: 4.28% 30-Year Treasury Yield: 4.03% 3-Mo Yield > 30-Yr Yield: -Inversion in 1989 -> Recession in 1990-91 -Inversion in 2000 -> Recession in 2001 -Inversion in 2006 -> Recession in 2008-09 -Inversion in 2019 -> Recession in 2020 -Inversion in 2022 -> ? (twitter.com)
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The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to $747 billion over the past year, a record high. At the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security. (twitter.com)
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Current market expectations for path of Fed Funds Rate... -Dec 2022: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Mar 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Nov 2023, continue in 2024... (twitter.com)
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Performance of 3 strategies this year... a) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes above 30, sell when $VIX closes below 20: +25.6% b) Buy & Hold S&P 500: -15.9% c) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes below 20, sell when $VIX closes above 30: -33.0% (twitter.com)
Price increases over last year (CPI report)... Fuel Oil: +68.5% Gas Utilities: +20.0% Gasoline: +17.5% Transportation: +15.2% Electricity: +14.1% Food at home: +12.4% Food away from home: 8.6% New Cars: +8.4% Overall CPI: +7.7% Shelter: +6.9% Medical Care: +5.4% Used Cars: +2.0% (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 gained 5.5% today, its largest % increase since April 2020 and 15th largest since 1950. One year later the market has often been higher following these large daily spikes (22 out of 24 times) with an average return of +31%. The 2 exceptions: Sep 2008 & Jan 2001. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Tesla is down 53.3% over the last 369 days, its longest drawdown since 2017-19 and largest since 2020. $TSLA (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Heating Oil: +54% Natural Gas: +26% Corn: +22% Soybeans: +20% Brent Crude +19% Gasoline: +14% WTI Crude: +13% Wheat: +10% US CPI: +8.2% Sugar: -6% Gold: -8% Zinc: -10% Silver: -13% Coffee: -16% Copper: -17% Cotton: -25% Lumber: -33% (twitter.com)
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Amazon is down 53% from its peak in July 2021, its largest drawdown since 2009. $AMZN Data via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 2% today, its 56th decline of 1% or more this year. That's the most downside volatility we've seen since 2008. $SPX (twitter.com)
Big tech returns in 2008 recession... $MSFT: -44% $AAPL: -57% $GOOGL: -56% $AMZN: -45% $QQQ: -42% Big tech returns in 2022 recession... $MSFT: -32% $AAPL: -23% $GOOGL: -39% $AMZN: -48% $QQQ: -33% (twitter.com)
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Current market expectations for path of Fed Funds Rate... -Dec 2022: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 50 bps hike to 4.75%-5.00% -Mar 2023: 25 bps hike to 5.00%-5.25% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Dec 2023, continue in 2024... (twitter.com)
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Tesla is down 54% from its peak last November, its largest drawdown since 2020. $TSLA Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The average year-end P/E ratio for the S&P 500 since 1989 is 19.6. We entered the year 17% above that level and are currently 7% below it. (note: using trailing 12 month operating EPS) (twitter.com)
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Used car prices are now down 15% over the last 9 months, the largest 9-month decline on record with data going back to 2008. This was a leading indicator of higher inflation rates in 2020 and the recent downturn is likely a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come. (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 60th consecutive week to its lowest level since 1984. The 33% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level of the year last week, down $289 billion from its peak in April and $119 billion over the last 5 weeks. This is the largest 5-week decline since July 2020. The Fed is finally starting to ramp up the pace of QT. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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With 87% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q3 GAAP earnings are down 4.8% year-over-year, the 2nd quarter in row of negative YoY growth. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The US Unemployment Rate moved up to 3.7% in October, 0.2% higher than the September reading (3.5%) which was the lowest rate we've seen since 1969. (twitter.com)
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During the previous 8 bear markets, the Fed responded with easy money (rate cuts, QE, etc.). This year they’re doing the opposite, hiking rates and reducing their balance sheet. When was the last time we saw a hawkish Fed during a bear market? Early 1980s under Paul Volcker. (twitter.com)
% Below High... Tesla $TSLA: -47% Li Auto $LI: -61% Fisker $FSR: -72% Lucid $LCID: -76% Proterra $PTRA: -80% Rivian $RIVN: -82% NIO $NIO: -84% Lion Electric $LEV: -90% XPeng $XPEV: -90% Canoo $GOEV: -93% Lordstown Motors $RIDE: -94% Nikola $NKLA: -96% Arrival $ARVL: -97% (twitter.com)
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The median price to sales ratio in the Nasdaq 100 has moved down to 4.2x, its lowest level since February 2016. It peaked last November at 8.5x and the Nasdaq 100 is down over 35% since. $QQQ (twitter.com)
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Google's revenues increased 6% over the last year, the slowest YoY growth rate since Q2 2020. $GOOGL (twitter.com)
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Total Returns, Last 20 Years... S&P 500: +523% Berkshire Hathaway: +489% Picking stocks is hard, even for the best investors. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The US Money Supply decreased 1.1% over the last 6 months, the largest decline over a 6-month period on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959). (twitter.com)
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The China internet ETF is at an all-time low, down 81% from its peak in Feb 2021. $KWEB Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -The Fed hiked rates for the 6th time this year, 75 bps increase to 3.75-4.00%. This is now the highest Fed Funds Rate since January 2008. -Saudi Arabia also hiked rates for the 6th time, 75 bps increase to 4.50%. (twitter.com)
The energy sector is up 69% this year. $XLE The tech sector is down 27% this year. $XLK Reversion to the mean is the most powerful force in markets, but there's no holy grail indicator that can tell you precisely when a reversion will occur. Investing is an imperfect endeavor. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 2.5% today, its 54th decline of 1% or more this year. That's already the most downside volatility we've seen since 2009 and there's still two months to go. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Total Return since the Facebook IPO in May 2012... Facebook $META: +149% S&P 500 $SPY: +262% Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The US Bond Market is down 1.8% over the last 6 years, the largest 6-year decline in bond market history. (twitter.com)
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Apple has bought back $549 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 494 companies in the S&P 500. $AAPL Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The last 8 times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, Bonds finished the year up, cushioning the blow. Very different story thus far in 2022 with Stocks and Bonds both down over 10%, something we've never seen. (twitter.com)
Nasdaq 100 Total Returns 2000: -37% 2001: -33% 2002: -38% 2003: +50% 2004: +11% 2005: +2% 2006: +7% 2007: +19% 2008: -42% 2009: +55% 2010: +20% 2011: +4% 2012: +18% 2013: +37% 2014: +19% 2015: +10% 2016: +7% 2017: +33% 2018: +.04% 2019: +39% 2020: +49% 2021: +27% 2022 YTD: -30% (twitter.com)
3-Month Treasury Bill Yield: 4.16% 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield: 4.12% (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hikes rates for the 7th month in a row, 25 bps increase to 2.85%. (twitter.com)
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In August 2020, Exxon was removed from the Dow and Salesforce was added to the index. Total Returns since... Exxon $XOM: +219% Salesforce $CRM: -43% Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Tomorrow's news today... BREAKING: THE FED HIKES INTEREST RATES FOR THE 6TH TIME THIS YEAR, 75 BPS INCREASE TO 3.75-4.00%. BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION CONTINUES. POWELL SIGNALS MORE TIGHTENING AHEAD BUT A SLOWER PACE OF ADDITIONAL RATE HIKES ON THE TABLE AT THE DECEMBER MEETING. (twitter.com)
2022 Returns $TWTR: +25% $AAPL: -15% $GME: -23% $MSFT: -31% $TSLA: -35% $CRM: -36% $GOOG: -36% $MRNA: -40% $AMZN: -41% $ADBE: -44% $TEAM: -48% $SNOW: -52% $NFLX: -52% $NVDA: -53% $ZM: -54% $PYPL: -56% $ETSY: -58% $AMD: -58% $SQ: -63% $SPOT: -65% $META: -72% $SHOP: -74% $SNAP:-79% (twitter.com)
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With total return data going back to 1928... # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down? 5 --> 1931, 1941, 1969, 2018, 2022* # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down more than 10%? 1 --> 2022* *YTD, still 2 months to go (twitter.com)
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Worst years for a US 60/40 portfolio through October... (twitter.com)
The combined revenue of the 4 largest US companies hit a record $1.38 trillion over last 12 months... Apple $AAPL: $394 billion Microsoft $MSFT: $203 billion Google $GOOGL: $282 billion Amazon $AMZN: $502 billion That's larger than the GDP of all but 14 countries. (twitter.com)
Price to Earnings Ratios... Amazon: 94x Tesla: 70x Netflix: 26x Apple: 25x Microsoft: 25x S&P 500: 20x Google: 19x Facebook: 9x Price to Sales Ratios... Tesla: 10x Microsoft: 9x Apple: 6x Google: 4.4x Netflix: 4.2x S&P 500: 2.3x Facebook: 2.2x Amazon: 2.1x Data via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The 17% decline over the last 27 months is now the longest and largest drawdown in history for the US bond market. (twitter.com)
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US Rents fell 0.8% in October, the second straight monthly decline. The year-over-year % increase has now moved down for 11 consecutive months after peaking at 18.1% last November. At 5.8%, this is the smallest YoY increase since May 2021. (twitter.com)
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The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level of the year last week, down $242 billion from its peak in April and $94 billion over the last 5 weeks. This is the largest 5-week decline since July 2020. The Fed is finally starting to ramp up the pace of QT. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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With 66% of companies reported, S&P 500 Q3 GAAP earnings are down 4.7% year-over-year, the 2nd quarter in row of negative YoY growth. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield ended the week at 4.18%, its highest level since October 2007. It entered the year at 0.06%. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Colombia hiked for the 10th time, 100 bps increase to 11.0%, its highest rate in 21 years. (twitter.com)
Apple Revenue (Billions) 2022(est): 399 2021: 378 2020: 294 2019: 268 2018: 266 2017: 229 2016: 216 2015: 234 2014: 183 2013: 171 2012: 157 2011: 108 2010: 65 2009: 43 2008: 37 2007: 25 2006: 19 2005: 14 2004: 8.3 2003: 6.2 2002: 5.7 2001: 5.4 2000: 8.0 1999: 6.1 1998: 5.9 $AAPL (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Heating Oil: +51% Corn: +21% Soybeans: +12% Brent Crude +14% Gasoline: +9% US CPI: +8.2% Wheat: +7% WTI Crude: +6% Natural Gas: -2% Gold: -9% Sugar: -10% Coffee: -15% Zinc: -16% Silver: -21% Copper: -23% Lumber: -32% Cotton: -37% (twitter.com)
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The average year-end P/E ratio for the S&P 500 since 1989 is 19.6. We entered the year 17% above that level and are currently 3% below it. (note: using trailing 12 month operating EPS) (twitter.com)
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The Fed meets again next Wednesday (11/2) and the market is pricing in a high probability (80%) of another 75 bps hike. That would be the 4th 75 bps hike in a row and bring the Fed Funds Rate up to 3.75-4.00%. The last time the Fed Funds Rate was that high? January 2008. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 has gained 11.9% from its low on October 13, the 5th notable rally since the peak back on January 4. $SPX Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The monthly mortgage payment needed to afford the median priced home for sale in the US has increased 48% over the last year ($1,712 --> $2,542) to a record high as mortgage rates have moved from 3.14% to 7.08%. Wages in the US are up 5% over the last year. (twitter.com)
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The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of 10-yr and 3-mo Treasury yields. That spread is now the most inverted since Feb 2020 with the 3-Month Treasury bill (4.13%) yield 17 bps higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond (3.96%). Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Price to Earnings Ratios... Altria $MO: 47 Clorox $CLX: 38 Kraft Heinz $KHC: 38 Colgate-Palmolive $CL: 32 Hershey $HSY: 30 Walmart $WMT: 28 PepsiCo $PEP: 26 Coca-Cola $KO: 26 Procter & Gamble $PG: 23 S&P 500 $SPY: 20 --- Facebook $META: 9 (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit a 22-month low this week, down 70% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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Apple revenues increased 8% over the prior year. $AAPL (twitter.com)
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US... 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 3.6% --- Today's Rate: 7.1% (twitter.com)
Q3 Revenue Growth, YoY % Change... Tesla $TSLA: +56% Amazon $AMZN: +15% ^Microsoft $MSFT: +11% S&P 500 $SPY: +11% Apple $AAPL: +8% ^Google $GOOGL: +6% *Netflix $NFLX: +6% *Facebook $META: -4% *Slowest in company history. ^Slowest since 2020. (twitter.com)
Facebook P/E Ratio... Oct 2013: 120 Oct 2014: 71 Oct 2015: 103 Oct 2016: 46 Oct 2017: 35 Oct 2018: 23 Oct 2019: 31 Oct 2020: 30 Oct 2021: 23 Today: 10 $META (twitter.com)
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Facebook's market cap is down 75% from is peak last September, lowest level since Jan 2016. From $1.08 trillion to $269 billion. $META Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.80% & average new home price in the US was $395k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 7.08% & average new home price is $518k. Result: $25k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) & 114% increase in monthly payment (from $1,298 to $2,779). (twitter.com)
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The 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US has moved above 7% for the first time since 2002. (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Canada hikes rates for the 6th time this year, 50 bps increase to 3.75%. (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 59th consecutive week to its lowest level since 1984. The 32% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Facebook revenues fell 4.5% over the last year, the largest decline in company history. $META (twitter.com)
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Every city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw a decline in home prices in August. The last time all 20 cities were down in a single month was in March 2011. San Francisco is showing the largest decline in prices thus far, -8.2% from its peak in May. (twitter.com)
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Current market expectations for path of Fed Funds Rate... -November: 75 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00% -December: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Dec 2023, continue in 2024... (twitter.com)
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The 10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 19.5%. (twitter.com)
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US Home prices fell in August for the second straight month, with the 2-month decline of -1.3% being the largest we've seen since 2010. In July, the streak of 126 consecutive monthly increases in US home prices came to an end. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Google's revenues increased 6% over the last year, the slowest YoY growth rate since Q2 2020. $GOOGL (twitter.com)
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The US Money Supply decreased 1.1% over the last 6 months, the largest decline over a 6-month period on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959). (twitter.com)
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Total Returns, Last 20 Years... S&P 500: +523% Berkshire Hathaway: +489% Picking stocks is hard, even for the best investors. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The China internet ETF is at an all-time low, down 81% from its peak in Feb 2021. $KWEB Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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With 24% of companies reported, S&P 500 GAAP earnings are down 2.7% year-over-year, the 2nd quarter in row of negative YoY growth. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit a 22-month low this week, down 69% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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With total return data going back to 1928... # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down? 5 --> 1931, 1941, 1969, 2018, 2022 # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down more than 10%? 1 --> 2022 (twitter.com)
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The declines in used car prices have accelerated over the last month... (twitter.com)
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Current market expectations for path of Fed Funds Rate... -November: 75 bps hike to 3.75%-4.00% -December: 50 bps hike to 4.25%-4.50% -Feb 2023: 25 bps hike to 4.50%-4.75% -Pause -Rate cuts start in Dec 2023, continue in 2024... (twitter.com)
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The 10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 19.5%. (twitter.com)
The Nasdaq Composite fell 78% from its high in March 2000 to its low in October 2002 (31 months). The ARK Innovation ETF fell 79% from its high in February 2021 to its low in October 2022 (20 months). $COMPQ $ARKK (twitter.com)
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US... 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 3.6% --- Today's Rate: 6.9% (twitter.com)
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Existing home sales fell for the 8th consecutive month, down 24% over the last year and at their lowest levels since May 2020. Following same pattern as the last housing bubble: Affordability collapses -> Sales plummet -> Prices decline Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level of the year this week, down $222 billion from its peak in April and $89 billion over the last 5 weeks. This is the largest 5-week decline since July 2020. The Fed is finally starting to ramp up the pace of QT. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
The longer the US funds the war in Ukraine, the longer the war goes on, the more lives are lost, the more the country is destroyed, the more people face starvation, and the higher the threat of nuclear war. But you're not allowed to say such things, so the status quo continues. (twitter.com)
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The investment grade corporate bond ETF is now down 23% year-to-date. Before this year its largest loss was a 3.8% decline in 2018. $LQD (twitter.com)
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The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has moved up to 6.94%, its highest level since 2002. In early 2021 it hit an all-time low of 2.65%. (twitter.com)
2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.81% & average new home price in the US was $395k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.94% & average new home price is $522k. Result: $25k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) & 112% increase in monthly payment (from $1,300 to $2,761). (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Heating Oil: +42% Corn: +28% Wheat: +15% Natural Gas: +13% Soybeans: +12% US CPI: +8.2% Brent Crude +6% Gasoline: -1% WTI Crude: -1% Sugar: -1% Coffee: -5% Gold: -6% Silver: -17% Zinc: -22% Cotton: -24% Lumber: -27% Copper: -29% (twitter.com)
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The Japanese Yen closed at its lowest level since 1990 against the US Dollar, losing 50% of its value from its peak in 2011. $JPYUSD (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 58th consecutive week to its lowest level since 1984. The 32% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Tesla Net Income (Millions) 2022 (Q1-3): +8,869 2021: +5,519 2020: +690 2019: -862 2018: -976 2017: -1961 2016: -675 2015: -889 2014: -294 2013: -74 2012: -396 2011: -254 2010: -154 2009: -56 2008: -82 2007: -78 $TSLA (twitter.com)
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The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of 10-yr and 3-mo Treasury yields. That inversion occurred today for the first time since 2020 with the 3-Month Treasury bill (4.04%) ending the day with a yield 3 bps higher than the 10-Year Treasury bond (4.01%). (twitter.com)
Big Bank 3rd Quarter Net Income, YoY % Change... Bank of America $BAC: -8% JP Morgan Chase $JPM: -17% Citigroup $C: -25% Morgan Stanley $MS: -29% Wells Fargo $WFC: -31% Goldman Sachs $GS: -43% (twitter.com)
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Years in which the S&P 500 was down more than 2022 at this point in time (198 trading days)... 1931 (Great Depression) 2008 (Global Financial Crisis/Recession) 1937 (Recession) 2002 (Bursting of dot-com bubble/Recession in '01) 1974 (High Inflation/Recession) (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 2.4% today, its 53rd decline of 1% or more this year. That's already the most downside volatility we've seen since 2009 and there's still two and a half months to go. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Used car prices are now down 10% over the past year, the largest YoY decline on record with data going back to 2009. This was a leading indicator of higher inflation rates in 2020 and the recent downturn is likely a leading indicator of lower inflation rates to come. (twitter.com)
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The last 8 recessions in the US were all preceded by an inversion of the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. We're now only 5 bps away and this inversion may be the first to occur after the official start of a recession. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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US Treasury Yields: End of 2021 -> Today 1-Mo: 0.06% -> 3.30% 3-Mo: 0.06% -> 3.81% 6-Mo: 0.19% -> 4.31% 1-Yr: 0.39% -> 4.50% 2-Yr: 0.73% -> 4.48% 3-Yr: 0.97% -> 4.47% 5-Yr: 1.26% -> 4.25% 7-Yr: 1.44% -> 4.15% 10-Yr: 1.52% -> 4.00% 30-Yr: 1.90% -> 3.99% (twitter.com)
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All of the US wage growth since the start of the borrowing/printing binge in March 2020 has been a mirage, up 14% in nominal terms but down 1% after adjusting for higher prices. (twitter.com)
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1, 2, 3, 5, and 10-year Treasury bonds are now all yielding 4% or more. The last time we saw that was in October 2007. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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With total return data going back to 1928... # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down? 5 --> 1931, 1941, 1969, 2018, 2022 # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down more than 10%? 1 --> 2022 (twitter.com)
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A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 21.6% in 2022, on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931. (twitter.com)
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The 10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 18%. (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit a 21-month low this week, down 68% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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Years in which the S&P 500 was down more than 2022 at this point in time (198 trading days)... 1931 (Great Depression) 2008 (Global Financial Crisis/Recession) 1937 (Recession) 2002 (Bursting of dot-com bubble/Recession in '01) 1974 (High Inflation/Recession) (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 2.4% today, its 53rd decline of 1% or more this year. That's already the most downside volatility we've seen since 2009 and there's still two and a half months to go. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The monthly mortgage payment needed to afford the median priced home for sale in the US has increased 51% over the last year ($1,698 --> $2,559) to a record high as mortgage rates have moved from 3.05% to 6.92%. Wages in the US are up 5% over the last year. (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve moved down for the 57th consecutive week, now at its lowest level since 1984. The 31% decline in reserves this year is the largest on record by a wide margin. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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US Producer Price Index increased 8.5% over the last year, a 14-month low. Peak was 11.7% back in March. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US... 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 3.6% --- Today's Rate: 6.9% (twitter.com)
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S&P 500 bear market update: -28% over the last 9 months. Median bear market since 1929? -29% over 12 months. $SPX (twitter.com)
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US wage growth has failed to keep pace with rising consumer prices for a record 18 consecutive months. This is a decline in prosperity for the American worker and the primary reason why the Fed must continue to hike rates. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has moved up to 6.92%, its highest level in over 20 years. In early 2021 it hit an all-time low of 2.65%. (twitter.com)
2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.87% & average new home price in the US was $395k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.92% & average new home price is $522k. Result: $25k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) & 110% increase in monthly payment (from $1,310 to $2,755). (twitter.com)
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September CPI report vs. August CPI report: -Lower YoY % increase: Fuel Oil, Gasoline, Electricity, Food at Home, New Cars, Used Cars -Higher YoY % increase: Gas Utilities, Transportation, Food away from Home, Shelter, Medical Care, Apparel (twitter.com)
Hiking rates to bring down inflation is not a "policy mistake," it's the Fed's mandate. The true policy mistake was believing that 0% rates, buying billions of mortgage bonds in a housing bubble, & increasing the money supply by 40% in 2 yrs would have no negative consequences. (twitter.com)
Price increases over last year (CPI report)... Fuel Oil: +58.1% Gas Utilities: +33.1% Gasoline: +18.2% Electricity: +15.5% Transportation: +14.6% Food at home: +13.0% New Cars: +9.4% Food away from home: 8.5% Overall CPI: +8.2% Used Cars: +7.2% Shelter: +6.6% Medical Care: +6.5% (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Chile hikes rates for the 11th time, 50 bps increase to 11.25%, signals end of tightening cycle. (twitter.com)
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A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 21% in 2022, on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931. (twitter.com)
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The US bond market is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 15.2%, which is 5x larger than the previous worst year back in 1994 (-2.9%). (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 has declined 1% or more 52 times this year, on pace for the most downside volatility in a calendar year since 2008. $SPX (twitter.com)
Stocks: bear market, down 25% Bonds: worst year in history Housing: prices falling for the first time in a decade Economy: 2 straight quarters of negative real GDP Nuclear War: on the table Fed: hiked rates 3% so far this year and expected to hike another 1.25% before year end (twitter.com)
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The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level of the year this week, down $206 billion from its peak in April and $74 billion over the last 3 weeks. This is the largest 3-week decline since July 2020. The Fed is finally starting to ramp up the pace of QT. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The worst starts to a year for the S&P 500 through 195 trading days... (twitter.com)
Nasdaq 100 Total Returns 2000: -37% 2001: -33% 2002: -38% 2003: +50% 2004: +11% 2005: +2% 2006: +7% 2007: +19% 2008: -42% 2009: +55% 2010: +20% 2011: +4% 2012: +18% 2013: +37% 2014: +19% 2015: +10% 2016: +7% 2017: +33% 2018: +.04% 2019: +39% 2020: +49% 2021: +27% 2022 YTD: -34% (twitter.com)
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At 9 months, the current bear market is the longest we've seen since the 2007-09 bear. The average/median length of a bear since 1929 is 14/12 months with a lot of deviation (ex: the 2020 bear was only 1 month; the 2000-02 bear was 31 months). $SPX (twitter.com)
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This is the longest S&P 500 correction (peak to trough) since the March 2009 low at 280 days and counting. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Used car prices are now down year-over-year, the first time we've seen that since May 2020. (twitter.com)
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The US Unemployment Rate moved back down to 3.5% in September, tying pre-pandemic levels for the lowest rate we've seen since 1969. (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit an 21-month low this week, down 67% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 has declined 1% or more 52 times this year, on pace for the most downside volatility in a calendar year since 2008. $SPX (twitter.com)
Stocks: bear market, down 25% Bonds: worst year in history Housing: prices falling for the first time in a decade Economy: 2 straight quarters of negative real GDP Nuclear War: on the table Fed: hiked rates 3% so far this year and expected to hike another 1.25% before year end (twitter.com)
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The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level of the year this week, down $206 billion from its peak in April and $74 billion over the last 3 weeks. This is the largest 3-week decline since July 2020. The Fed is finally starting to ramp up the pace of QT. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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US Average Hourly Earnings increased 4.98% YoY in September, the slowest growth rate since December 2021. This will be the 18th consecutive month that inflation outpaced the growth in wages, a decline in prosperity for the American worker. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Used car prices are now down year-over-year, the first time we've seen that since May 2020. (twitter.com)
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The US Unemployment Rate moved back down to 3.5% in September, tying pre-pandemic levels for the lowest rate we've seen since 1969. (twitter.com)
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The last 5 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession. The 2001 and 1990-91 recessions never had readings this low. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Worst years for a US 60/40 portfolio through September... (twitter.com)
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The US Bond Market has a -0.3% annualized return over the last 5 years, the first negative 5-year return in bond market history. (twitter.com)
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The Wilshire 5000 was down 25.9% in the last 9 months, one of the worst 9-month periods for stocks in the last 50 years. Has selling AFTER large 9-month declines been a good strategy for long-term investors in the past? No. Here's the data... (twitter.com)
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With total return data going back to 1928... # Years in which both S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down? 5 --> 1931, 1941, 1969, 2018, 2022 # Years in which both S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down more than 10%? 1 --> 2022 (twitter.com)
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US National Debt hits $31 trillion for the first time, an increase of $8 trillion (35%) over the last 3 years. (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hikes rates for the 6th month in a row, 25 bps increase to 2.60%. -New Zealand hikes rates for the 8th time in the last year, 50 bps increase to 3.50%. (twitter.com)
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US Job Openings hit a 14-month low in August, down 1.8 million from their record high in March. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -India hiked rates for the 4th time, 50 bps increase to 5.90%. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 finished the first 9 months of 2022 down 24% (total return including dividends). Worst years in history... 1) 1931: -43.8% 2) 2008: -37.0% 3) 1937: -35.3% 4) 1974: -25.9% 5) 1930: -25.1% 6) 2002: -22.1% 7) 1973: -14.3% 8) 1941: -12.8% 9) 2001: -11.9% 10) 1940: -10.7% (twitter.com)
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The last 5 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession. The 2001 and 1990-91 recessions never had readings this low. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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This is now the longest S&P 500 correction (peak to trough) since the March 2009 low at 269 days and counting. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Worst years for a US 60/40 portfolio through September... (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 has declined 1% or more 50 times this year, on pace for the most downside volatility in a calendar year since 2008. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The worst starts to a year for the S&P 500 through 188 trading days... (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Mexico hiked rates 75 bps to 9.25% (11th hike) -Colombia hikes rates 100 bps to 10.00% (9th hike) (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit an 20-month low this week, down 63% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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The US Bond Market has a -0.3% annualized return over the last 5 years, the first negative 5-year return in bond market history. (twitter.com)
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A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 21% in 2022, on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 is down 23.6% in the first 187 trading days of 2022, the 4th worst start to a year in history. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The 16% decline over the last 26 months is now the longest and largest drawdown in history for the US bond market. (twitter.com)
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US... 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 3.5% --- Today's Rate: 6.7% (twitter.com)
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Bears outnumbered Bulls by 43% in last week's AAII sentiment survey. With data going back to 1987, the only other times we've seen sentiment this bearish... 1) October 1990 (-20% bear market that bottomed in Oct 1990 w/ recession in 1990-1991) 2) March 2009 (week of the lows) (twitter.com)
During a housing bubble the Fed cuts rates to 0% & buys trillions in mortgage bonds to push mortgage rates to record lows & make housing prices skyrocket even further but when they raise interest rates back to normal levels & stop buying mortgage bonds that's the policy mistake? (twitter.com)
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Many are saying the Fed is making a "mistake" in hiking rates "too fast" in an attempt to break inflation. Where were these critics when the money supply was increased by 40% in 2 years and the Fed was buying mortgage bonds, artificially suppressing rates during a housing bubble? (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -India hiked rates for the 4th time, 50 bps increase to 5.90%. (twitter.com)
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This is now the longest S&P 500 correction (peak to trough) since the March 2009 low at 269 days and counting. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Global Central Bank Update: -Mexico hiked rates 75 bps to 9.25% (11th hike) -Colombia hikes rates 100 bps to 10.00% (9th hike) (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit an 20-month low this week, down 63% from their peak. Still over 2x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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Market-based inflation expectations hit an 18-month low today @ 2.19%, down from a peak of 3.02% in April. The global slowdown and tightening monetary policy in nearly every country around the world is breaking the back of inflation. Will soon hear moderation of hawkish rhetoric. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 2.1% today, its 49th decline of 1% or more this year. That's already the most downside volatility we've seen since 2009 and there's still 3 months to go. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 is down 23.6% in the first 187 trading days of 2022, the 4th worst start to a year in history. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate in the US... 1970s: 8.9% 1980s: 12.7% 1990s: 8.1% 2000s: 6.3% 2010s: 4.1% 2020s: 3.5% --- Today's Rate: 6.7% (twitter.com)
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Bears outnumbered Bulls by 43% in last week's AAII sentiment survey. With data going back to 1987, the only other times we've seen sentiment this bearish... 1) October 1990 (-20% bear market that bottomed in Oct 1990 w/ recession in 1990-1991) 2) March 2009 (week of the lows) (twitter.com)
During a housing bubble the Fed cuts rates to 0% & buys trillions in mortgage bonds to push mortgage rates to record lows & make housing prices skyrocket even further but when they raise interest rates back to normal levels & stop buying mortgage bonds that's the policy mistake? (twitter.com)
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The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has moved up to 6.70%, its highest level since July 2007. The 3.69% spike in rates over the last year is the largest YoY increase since 1980-81. (twitter.com)
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Many are saying the Fed is making a "mistake" in hiking rates "too fast" in an attempt to break inflation. Where were these critics when the money supply was increased by 40% in 2 years and the Fed was buying mortgage bonds, artificially suppressing rates during a housing bubble? (twitter.com)
2 years ago: 30-yr mortgage rate was 2.88% & average new home price in the US was $405k. Today: 30-yr mortgage rate is 6.7% & average new home price is $522k. Result: $23k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 100% increase in monthly payment (from $1,345 to $2,694). (twitter.com)
3x Long Nasdaq 100 ETF Returns... 2010: +89% 2011: -8% 2012: +52% 2013: +140% 2014: +57% 2015: +17% 2016: +11% 2017: +118% 2018: -20% 2019: +134% 2020: +110% 2021: +83% 2022 YTD: -75% $TQQQ (twitter.com)
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US Rents fell 0.2% in September, the first decline this year. The year-over-year increase moved down to 7.5%, the slowest growth rate since May 2021. (twitter.com)
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The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has moved down to 423 million barrels, its lowest level since 1984. The 29% decline this year is already the largest ever for a calendar year by a wide margin, and there's still 3 months to go. (twitter.com)
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The longest duration bond ETF is now down 53% from its high in March 2020. How is that possible? The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 up to 3.8% today. Long duration + Rising interest rates from extremely low levels = Pain $ZROZ (twitter.com)
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The median price to sales ratio in the Nasdaq 100 has moved down to 4.5x, its lowest level since March 2020. It peaked last November at 8.5x and the Nasdaq 100 is down over 30% since. $QQQ (twitter.com)
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The investment grade corporate bond ETF is now down 22% year-to-date. Before this year its largest loss was a 3.8% decline in 2018. $LQD (twitter.com)
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The bear market rally we saw off of the June low was a big one (+17% on closing basis) but certainly not unprecedent. Longer bears like 2007-09 and 2000-02 both had 20% snapback rallies where it looked like the worst was over, only to be followed by lower lows. $SPX (twitter.com)
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Historical drawdowns in the S&P 500 of 20% or more... (twitter.com)
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The US Money Supply decreased 0.1% over the last 5 months, the first decline over a 5-month period since 2004. (twitter.com)
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US Home prices fell in July for the first time since December 2011, ending a streak of 126 consecutive monthly increases (note: case-shiller national home price index, seasonally adjusted). Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Nasdaq 100 Total Returns 2000: -37% 2001: -33% 2002: -38% 2003: +50% 2004: +11% 2005: +2% 2006: +7% 2007: +19% 2008: -42% 2009: +55% 2010: +20% 2011: +4% 2012: +18% 2013: +37% 2014: +19% 2015: +10% 2016: +7% 2017: +33% 2018: +.04% 2019: +39% 2020: +49% 2021: +27% 2022 YTD: -31% (twitter.com)
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Crude Oil closed at its lowest level since Jan 3, down 41% from its high. The 3.7% YoY increase is the lowest since early 2021. Following the same pattern as the 2nd half of 2008 when high prices & a global recession destroyed demand, leading to a collapse in commodity prices. (twitter.com)
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The British Pound hit a new all-time low today against the US Dollar, breaking below the prior low from 1985. The Pound has lost over 20% of its value against the Dollar this year and more than 50% from its peak in 2007. $GBPUSD (twitter.com)
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1, 2, 3, 5, and 7 year Treasury yields all closed above 4% today. The last time that happened was in October 2007. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 20.4% in 2022, on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931. (twitter.com)
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Only 3% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving average today, a reading more oversold than 99% of historical data points. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 has returned 10% annualized since 1928 with an average intra-year drawdown of -16.3% (we're at -23.8% this year). There's no upside without downside, no reward without risk. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 is down 23.3% in the first 184 trading days of 2022, the 4th worst start to a year in history. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell another 1% today, its 31st decline of the year of between 1% and 2%. That's the most we've seen since 2008 which had 34. $SPX (twitter.com)
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US Treasury Yields: End of 2021 -> Today 1-Mo: 0.06% -> 2.67% 3-Mo: 0.06% -> 3.24% 6-Mo: 0.19% -> 3.85% 1-Yr: 0.39% -> 4.15% 2-Yr: 0.73% -> 4.20% 3-Yr: 0.97% -> 4.21% 5-Yr: 1.26% -> 3.96% 7-Yr: 1.44% -> 3.85% 10-Yr: 1.52% -> 3.69% 30-Yr: 1.90% -> 3.61% (twitter.com)
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The US Dollar Index is at its highest level in over 20 years (since May 2002), up 58% from its low in 2008. $DXY Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The correlation between stocks and bonds over the last 2 years is the highest we've seen since 1993-1995. (twitter.com)
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The 10-Year Treasury yield (3.69%) is now 51 bps below the 2-Year (4.20%), the most inverted yield curve we've seen in the US since April 2000. Back then, the expansion peaked in March 2001. Today, many believe we are already in a recession. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
Commodity price changes over the last year... Heating Oil: +41% Natural Gas: +39% Corn: +28% Wheat: +23% Coffee: +16% Brent Crude +13% Soybeans: +11% Gasoline: +9% US CPI: +8.3% WTI Crude: +7% Cotton: +0.1% Zinc: -2% Gold: -5% Sugar: -13% Silver: -17% Copper: -21% Lumber: -32% (twitter.com)
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FedEx is now down 52% from its high. The 3 prior 50+% drawdowns in its history all occurred during recessions (1991-92, 2008-09, 2020). $FDX Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)
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The only years with higher volatility in stocks at this point than 2022 (183 trading days): -1930s (Great Depression, World War II) -2002 (Dot-Com Crash) -2008-9 (Global Financial Crisis) -2020 (Covid Crash) (twitter.com)
2022 Returns $TWTR: -4% $AAPL: -15% $TSLA: -22% $MSFT: -29% $GOOG: -31% $AMZN: -32% $GME: -33% $CRM: -42% $TEAM: -43% $SNOW: -49% $ADBE: -50% $MRNA: -51% $AMD: -53% $PYPL: -54% $ETSY: -56% $NVDA: -57% $META: -58% $ZM: -60% $SPOT: -62% $NFLX: -62% $SQ: -65% $SNAP: -78% $SHOP: -79% (twitter.com)
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The last 8 times the S&P 500 was down in a calendar year, Bonds finished the year up, cushioning the blow. Very different story thus far in 2022 with Stocks and Bonds both down over 10%, something we've never seen. (twitter.com)
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The 10-Year US Treasury bond is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 15.9%. (twitter.com)
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A 60/40 Portfolio of US Stocks/Bonds is down 19.3% in 2022, on pace to become the 2nd worst year in history after 1931. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 fell 1.7% on Friday, its 30th decline of the year of between 1% and 2%. That's the most we've seen since 2008 which had 34. $SPX (twitter.com)
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The US bond market is on pace for its worst year in history with a loss of 13.8%. Entering the year, the 2.9% decline for bonds in 1994 was the largest ever. (twitter.com)
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The S&P 500 is down 22.5% in the first 183 trading days of 2022, the 5th worst start to a year in history. $SPX (twitter.com)
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US Investment Grade Corporate Bonds are down 16.6% year-to-date, on pace to be their worst year in history by a wide margin. (twitter.com)
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The Trouble With Butter: Tight Dairy Supplies Send Prices Surging Ahead of Baking Season (www.wsj.com)
75. 50. 25. 0. Those are the market's expectations for Fed hikes at the next 4 FOMC meetings... Nov: 75 bps hike to 3.75-4.00% Dec: 50 bps hike to 4.25-4.50% Feb '23: 25 bps hike to 4.50-4.75% Mar '23: no hike (twitter.com)
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Global container freight rates hit an 18-month low, down 61% from their peak. Still 3x higher than pre-pandemic levels but continuing to move in the right direction. (twitter.com)
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Housing Market Update: Rising Prices Amid Falling Demand and Supply Reflect a “New Weird” (www.redfin.com)
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Reduction in the Fed's balance sheet has been extremely slow thus far, only down $149 billion from its peak in April w/ assets still higher than the start of the year. Initial plan was to accelerate the unwind in September to a pace of $95 billion/month. Charting via @ycharts (twitter.com)